Grumpy Old Guy

Breaking News
Why Israel’s current offensive is doomed to fail              After the War in Ukraine...              Overpaid Councillors Denbighshire and Conwy              Too little too late – The real Cybersecurity Story                         
Acting with Impunity

With yesterdays attack by Netanyahu on the Hezbollah Peace talks team it is clear that he believes that nobody will stop him from doing what he wants. The attack though was on the foreign soil of Qatar and as such is an act of war against Qatar.

On a different front, we see in todays news that Poland shot down drones that they say came from Russia and entered their air space. As Poland is part of NATO this could be seen as an attack on a NATO country meaning that ALL of the NATO members come together and retaliate.

However, absolutely nobody will take action against these autocratic dictators, so I expect no military response, just more sanctions.

The fact is that Netanyahu has seen Putin act with impunity and has decided that now is the time for him to do whatever he wants... I.E. destroying Hezbollah be it their military arm or their politicians and diplomats, and you can be certain that the attack on Qatar was against politicians, not a military target, just the one that would stop any peace talks.

Putin is still acting like he is winning in Ukraine when in fact Russia is a spent force and yet NATO continues to poop it's pants because of the nuclear threat. Yet this threat is, like the Russian "military might" completely unfounded.

Let me ask my AI friend who actually checks the facts the big question.

The likelihood that a military nuclear missile will explode with its intended yield if not serviced regularly is extremely low; improper maintenance significantly increases the risk of malfunction, misfire, or failure to achieve full yield, rather than unintended nuclear detonation.livescience+1

Yield Reliability Under Poor Maintenance

Historical data and expert analysis indicate that uncertainty in nuclear yield increases with poor weapon upkeep; yield can be reduced by at least 10–25%, undermining the effectiveness of an attack. However, outright nuclear detonation from decay, accident, or sabotage—especially achieving full intended yield—is virtually unheard of in real-world cases and remains a rare theoretical risk.ucs+2

Conclusion

A poorly serviced nuclear missile is far more likely to fail safely (not detonate, or detonate as a non-nuclear, “dirty bomb” event), or to produce a much reduced yield if it does manage to function at all. The probability of a full, intended-yield nuclear explosion after neglect or lack of maintenance is extremely low, with modern weapon safety systems specifically designed to prevent this outcome.ucs+2

(References at the foot of this article.)

Because of this, the Russian threat is really low. Putin has had to take military feet on the ground support from China and North Korea due to the lack of military age men that can enlist in their army. Most young Russians don't want to fight in the first place, many having fled Russia already.

So, why oh why is the Western world not standing up against Putin and Netanyahu? Why are politicians just spending months in diplomatic talks that are clearly a waste of time?

Ukraine wants an end to the war, but Putin can't lose face. Netanyahu is fixated on the elimination of the Palestinian people and Hezbollah makes for a convenient scape goat and reason for invading Gaza and taking the land.

It's time this was stopped, but unless the fucking wimps in power in the West actually cut off Israel and Russia completely, sanction North Korea and China further and finally start massing troops on the borders of these counties to defend themselves, and show intent to take action, then absolutely nothing will stop.

Putin needs to go, as does Netanyahu, but this does need to be an internal change and not one forced by Russia. One way to do this is to overpower the airwaves/internet with the facts about the wars in each region so that the disinformation from the dictators. I'm sure this is happening but it is seldom highlighted.

However, while countries like India continue to buy oil from Russia and while America continues to supply parts for weapon systems to Israel, the leaders will continue to act with impunity because they have the funds/weapon systems they need.

It has to stop.

References:

  1. https://www.livescience.com/what-stops-nuclear-weapons-from-accidentally-detonating
  2. https://scholar.harvard.edu/files/matthew_bunn/files/bunn_uncertainties_of_a_preemptive_nuclear_attack_01.pdf
  3. https://www.ucs.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/04/Close%20Calls%20with%20Nuclear%20Weapons.pdf
  4. https://news.usni.org/2021/01/06/summary-of-low-yield-nuclear-warhead-debate
  5. https://www.reddit.com/r/AskPhysics/comments/1e6i7qg/if_a_rocket_hits_a_nuclear_bomb_would_the_nuclear/
  6. https://www.reddit.com/r/AskPhysics/comments/1fvccye/what_would_happen_if_a_ballistic_missile_or/
  7. https://www.sgr.org.uk/resources/nuclear-weapons-beginner-s-guide-threats
  8. https://www.icanw.org/catastrophic_harm
  9. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2025/03/uks-nuclear-deterrent-relies-us-support-there-are-no-other-easy-alternatives
  10. https://www.mirasafety.com/blogs/news/survive-nuclear-fallout
  11. https://truthout.org/articles/low-yield-nuclear-weapons-could-pose-greater-threat-of-nuclear-war/
  12. https://www.npr.org/2025/06/21/nx-s1-5440358/bombing-a-nuclear-site-what-are-the-risks
  13. https://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2017/08/lower-yield-weapons-will-raise-not-lower-threshold-nuclear-use/140610/
  14. https://www.twz.com/just-how-radioactive-are-low-yield-nuclear-weapons
  15. https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/Portals/10/AEtherJournal/Journals/Volume-2_Number-2/McCue.pdf
  16. https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/devastating-effects-of-nuclear-weapons-war/

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *